The Importance Of Home Advantage In Football Trading

Finding football betting value and analyzing your own football trading odds starts with understanding how home advantage affects football results. You can check the best บ้านผลบอล at baanzeanball website. In this article, we explain how home advantage is calculated and explain what causes a bias.

In Football, Home Advantage Is Evident

You may not know this, but sports teams perform better at home than on neutral grounds or away from home. It is believed that football has the greatest home advantage out of all sports.

Home teams over the years have won more games and scored more goals than their away counterparts since 1888.

Furthermore, a home bias does not affect just domestic soccer. According to their study, nearly 9,000 matches between 1993 and 2004 were examined by Jim Albert and Ruud H. Koning.

A home team won 50.5% of international games, the away team won 24.5%, and 25% of games ended in a draw. Our report examined all FIFA registered teams – elite teams such as Spain, Brazil, Germany, France, and Italy showed a win rate at home above 60%.

The History of Home Advantage in the Premier League

By analyzing every Premier League season, for example, we can illustrate how consistent home advantage is.

In The Premier League, How Often Do Home Teams Win?

For each season since the Premier League was introduced, the graph below shows the win, draw, and away percentages. It’s impressive to see how consistent the EPL has been over 25 seasons, with only a 10% difference in home win percentage.

Most Premier League teams win 46.2% of their home games, while 27.52% of games end in a draw and 26.32% of games are won by the away team.

Premier League Teams Score How Many Goals At Home

Over time, both Premier League home and away goals have increased – but away goals have grown the most. However, there is still a clear home advantage based on how many goals the home team has scored and how many the away team has scored.

Old Trafford was notoriously good for Manchester United under Alex Ferguson. United were the top performing team at home for five seasons before he retired at the end of the 2012/13 season. Since then, they have never met those same standards.

Home Advantage Is Driven By A Variety Of Factors

In order to gauge home advantage accurately, you will need to understand what factors influence it.

Crowds

There’s no doubt that fans believe they make a difference to the result of an event. However, is this actually the case? Measuring the effect of crowd support can be challenging. Using the example of Pollard (2006), we find it to be unclear if crowd size is directly related to home advantage in football, while the advantage is evident even with small crowds.

All of these factors should be taken into account, including the density and proximity of the spectators and the level of support.

Travel

The away team must understand how travel disadvantages them. In local derbies where no travel is involved, Pollard (2006) and other research papers consistently identify a loss of ‘home advantage’.

Betting Should be Based on This

Having a clear understanding of home advantage before a game allows you to be an informed bettor.

It is a valuable tool for forming an Asian Handicap strategy when the home team has a goal-based advantage. Thus, you can determine the value of a team, especially in lower ranking football leagues.